The press has spent endless streams of ink overt these past
weeks dissecting the deteriorating relationship between Israel and the United
States. The Obama Administration has become reflexive in response. Last week a
conference call between the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, an Iran
Hawk, was trumpeted a day before it took place, Phone calls between leaders of
state are seldom reported on with such breathless anticipation.
There are a couple of aspects to this story, however, that
get scant reporting.
Israeli Public
Opinion
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported polling among Palestinians
and the Israeli public showed that 80% believe a military confrontation with
Iran could lead to a major regional conflict. 77% of Israelis drew that
conclusion and 82% of Palestinians did. 65% of Israelis do not want the
Israelis to strike unless the US joins in the action.
Netanyahu polls very well among the Israeli public. This
would seem to indicate the Israelis don’t particularly mind him nudging the US
so long as he doesn’t go off and do something crazy or impulsive as the Israeli’s
did disastrously under conservative leadership in in 1982 and 2006 in Lebanon. As
in America one sure way to drive your poll numbers is do saber rattle in the
face of perceived threats. Bush and Rove did this brilliantly in 2004. A cynic
might conclude that Netanyahu’s UN presentation of the “Willie Coyote” (as John
Stewart called it) bomb was for Israeli consumption as much or more than for
American audiences.
Haaretz also reports that Netanyahu and Romney, both hawks
on the Iran issue, draw substantial campaign
contributions form Shelley Adelson and his fellow travelers. “A Haaretz
investigation found that 19 of Netanyahu's wealthiest American donors have also
given to Romney, the Republican Party, and/or other Republican candidates.” According
to Haaretz though Netanyahu’ s donation list for his recent party leadership
shows 37 American donors, not one of them is Democratic”.
“Meir Dagan,
Former Mossad Chief, Says Attack On Iran 'Stupidest Idea' He's Ever Heard”—60 Minutes
Well, you can’t really say that the views of the former
Mossad chief haven’t been well publicized—they were on 60 Minutes—but with all all
the recent hysteria about the Iranian crisis the interview should get more
attention.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi6YDTC0Rb4
According to an article printed in the NY Times Speaking at
Tel Aviv University in 2011 Dagan said that attacking Iran “would mean regional
war, and in that case you would have given Iran the best possible reason to
continue the nuclear program. The regional challenge that Israel would face
would be impossible.”
What Would War
with Iran Look Like
Americans now calling for red lines and preparing for war
have ridiculously short memories. We forget the promises of a smooth and easy
transition in Iraq. America unleashed a chaos in Iraq, which some in retrospect
called inevitable. 500,000 Iraqi civilians died from hunger, disease and civil
conflict. Today we hear Republicans talking about the “chaotic” events in the
Middle East. With every breath Romney advisor Dan Senor and other architects of
the disastrous invasion and post war management or Iraq try to erase American
memory of what happened after the statue was toppled in Bagdad. They suggest, without quite mentioning the rejected policies of the previous administration that the terrorist attack in Libya or the Egyptian Embassy confrontation some can be equated to the absolute destruction for which the US is directly responsible in Iraq. They are wrong, politically, and morally.
The Right in Israel and the US calls for red lines, which may not lead to war, but
certainly are designed to lock the US into military confrontation in the event
the Iranians do not capitulate on a schedule and under circumstances of their choosing. Has America already
forgotten the looting in Bagdad, Rumsfeld’s famous utterance that “Democracy is
messy”, Moktada Al Sadr? Did we already forget Tikrit, Samara and other cities
which became death traps for Americans supposedly bringing democracy to Iraq,
long after the WMD turned out to be non-existent and the Bush administration had
to scramble to rationalize the death and destruction they had visited on Iraq? What
about Abu Ghraib, Americans charged with killing Iraqi civilians indiscriminately
in Haditha, and American contractors being desecrated on a bridge in Fallujah?
Does any of this ring a bell? The fog of war? Nothing?
Iran comprises an area four times the size of Iraq, and the
population is about 2-1/2 times that of Iraq. The army, mostly poorly trained
conscripts has about 350,000 personnel. There are also more than 125,000 Revolutionary
Guards which are likely to be more committed to the fight. America “defeated” a
much larger military force in Iraq, but as we saw in Bagdad, Fallujah, and Basra,
and Sadr City, defeating an armed force is one thing, calming a hostile civilian
population with endless amounts of weapons is quite another. Beyond that the
inventory of Iranian missiles poses a substantial threat to Israel and has the
potential to spill conflict across the map of the Middle East. Exact numbers
are difficult to come by but Haaretz reports that Iran’s client, Hezbollah, had
about 14,000 missiles when Israel attacked in 2006 and launched about 4,200.
Election years are not, typically a good time to calm fears
of foreign enemies. Candidates, especially those on the downside of the polls, can
be counted on to try to raise fears and play on voter anxiety. It is clear that
the circumstances of the Iranian Nuclear program are complex and worrisome, but
America would do well to seek toned down rhetoric or less brightly drawn lines,
especially those designed to draw America into an unnecessary war.
I am not certain that the Obama Administration is on the
right rack in Iranian policy, but I deeply suspect the motives of the Likud Israelis
and Conservative Right Wing Republicans who advocate a different more militarist
path. Their solutions are always easier until lives are at stake and the fog of
war seeps through our TV screen. America has learned the lessons of over extending
ourselves even in what almost everyone believed was a righteous cause in
Afghanistan: Getting in and declaring “Victory” is easy, getting out? Not so
much.
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