The Israeli’s
appear ready to move by the summer, no later, and warnings appear everywhere
that they are impatient with the American posture and American pressure to be
patient. The Israeli PM, Netanyahu, met with a gaggle of Republican Senators
last week, and is coming to Washington. Netanyahu has his own issues. The
Jerusalem post reports that only 19% of Israelis want their government to act,
if that means doing it without US support. Both the Senators’ visit and what
will no doubt be a waterfall of opinion pieces by Israel’s so called friends in
the US press coinciding with the Netanyahu visit are intended to put election
year pressure on Obama to act.
There’s only
one problem. While there is ample evidence that Iran is continuing to develop
nuclear technology, the intelligence community both herein the US and elsewhere
does not believe Iran has even decided whether or not to build a bomb. Last Friday
the NY Times reported the consensus view of 16 separate intelligence agencies
of the US government: “Recent assessments
by American spy agencies are broadly consistent with a 2007 intelligence
finding that concluded that Iran had abandoned its nuclear weapons program
years earlier, according to current and former American officials. The
officials said that assessment was largely reaffirmed in a 2010 National
Intelligence Estimate, and that it remains the consensus view of America’s 16
intelligence agencies.”
Sound
familiar? It ought to. The American public, half mad with grief and anger over
9-11, easily purchased the glossy lies and phantasmagorical fables Bush and the
Intelligence communities were selling about WMD in Iraq. All of it turned out
to be wrong, every last bit of it. David Kaye noted in last Friday’s Times article
that the bar has been raised as a result of the Iraqi fiasco (my word, not his).
Mr. Kay explained, “The amount of evidence that you were willing to go with in
2002 is not the same evidence you are willing to accept today.”
For weeks
after the invasion right-wing radio abounded with stories of potential WMD finds,
so hopeful were they that the fables would prove to be righteous. In absence of
truths on the ground in Iraq, the American people were fed a steady diet of propaganda
suggesting Iraqi involvement in 9-11. Even after the 9-11 Commission Report on
the attacks was released in Nov-2004, Cheney in particular continued to hump
the-- by then—obvious lie that Iraq was involved in the bombings at the WTC and
the Pentagon.
As we circle back
to our current dilemma increasingly one begins to wonder if the real aim of the
Iranians is to suggest that they are crazy enough to do it—to build a nuclear
weapon within 500 miles of the Israeli capital--all the while taking in the
world attention. Simultaneously they avoid what could be a catastrophically bad
decision for them. Saddam Hussein tried this ruse with a half clever President.
Hussein got to hide in a hole and eventually to be hung by his own people for
his foolish bravado and that of his paranoid followers. The Supreme leader in
Iran has ample reason to believe that his citizens would do the same to him
given the opportunity. These are bad, bad guys with brutal records on human rights.
The world may be better off without Saddam, but whether the world is better off
as a result of the war that led to his ouster is another matter. One of the major
consequences of the weakening of Iraq has been the strengthening of Iran.
North Korea
has also been playing the “Look-At-Me” card. But in far more desperate
circumstances that Iran, today the North Koreans folded to international
pressure (even their sponsor China was antsy). In return for massive food aid North
Korea claimed they would abandon both nuclear weapons and ballistic missile
development. Time will tell if that new agreement stands. Others have not.
Meanwhile the
world gets more complicated. The Arab spring has changed many facts on the ground.
Hamas, Israel’s bitter and militant enemy in Gaza has moved from Syria and its orbit
of Iranian influence there, to Doha. They have come out in favor of the civilian
resistance to the Syrian government which aligns them at least in this instance
with American policy. Hamas would destroy Israel without thought or
reservation, but as with so many other foreign policy scenarios the complexity
does not lend itself well to hysterical ramblings of ambitious politicians. Hamas
is moving closer to reconciliation of the now far more moderate PLO. It remains
to be seen if this is because the PLO is moving back towards radicalism and Infitada,
or Hamas is moving towards some way out of the terrible hole it dug for itself.
The pain of isolation and hunger and want in Gaza is matched only by the anger
over lack of progress in the peace talks and the continued unilateral actions
of the Israelis. Walls now enclose Palestinian communities and settlement activity
goes on unabated and the Peace process is in cold storage. Whatever direction
this takes, the Palestinians are now a
far more moderated force dependent on international recognition for their survival.
In Israel
Defense Minister Ehud Barack has said the Iranians are "radicals but not
total meshuginah (crazy)." The Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs has called the
Iranians “rational actors”. These notes screw up the Amen chorus for military action
and the Israeli PM and his media friends on the right are apoplectic with the
diplo-speak. The Obama administration responding to Iranian signals they are
ready to restart negotiations as recently enacted sanctions begin to take hold
is urging Israeli restraint. Netanyahu is coming to push back and to gin up the
first tool in machinery of war-- propaganda.
The Israelis,
in far more danger than America, of course see the Iranian situation playing out
through glasses tinted with the colors of isolation and fear. Ahmadinejad, a Holocaust
denier, has called for Israel’s complete destruction and made every effort to
look slightly unhinged whenever he enters the world’s stage. But Israel’s friends
do her no favors when they defend Israel no matter the course of action she
chooses.
In the summer
of 1982, prodded by an attempted assassination of an ambassador in the UK and
rocket launches into their northern communities, Israel entered Lebanon to go
after the PLO. Sharon, the then General of Israeli Defense forces and later
Israeli PM, marched all the way to Beirut before getting bogged down with world
opinion and close-quarters combat in the streets. Also looking for a victory
over the PLO and its sponsor, the USSR, Reagan increased substantially the
supply of weapons to our ally Israel. Soon enough the press was reporting questionable
use of American made phosphorus charges and cluster bombs, both designed to
inflict maximum civilian casualties and suffering. Other than the pressure of the ensuing terror
on its civilian population, none of the munitions had much effect on actual PLO
fighters.
After much
international pressure, Reagan sent 1,200 Marines to assist in an intentionally
brokered evacuation effort designed to remove PLO leadership, save Israeli face,
and stop the bombardment of Israeli and Lebanese civilian populations. What
followed in short order was the murder of the Lebanese President, a Christian, the
massacre of more than 800, and perhaps as many as 3,000 Palestinians in the Sabra
and Shatilla refugee camps at the hand of Israel’s Christian allies in Lebanon,
and the bombing of the Marine barracks in in Lebanon in in which 241 Marines
were killed. Time and time again we make the same mistake. That part of the
world always looks simpler from the perch from which American politicians
devise their simple solutions.
In 2004, in
the face of continuing sectarian violence and a deteriorating political environment,
Reagan ordered the evacuation of all American military personnel from Lebanon. The
Israelis left in 2000 with inconclusive results and under pressure from a
war-weary electorate. They invaded Lebanon again in 2006 and again left with inconclusive
results and world-wide criticism.
The criticism
of course only reinforces the strain of the Israeli conscience which wallows in
isolation and xenophobic fear. This is not as easy as “Give-Peace-A-Chance”. This
is a fearful and anxious time and the Iranian actors are as batsh** as they
come. Coolers heads need to prevail and the American public needs to question
the obvious answers that are presented. President Obama needs to stay strong in
the face of right wing attacks that encourage further militarism and further
loss.
Americans, long
sympathetic to the point of having a near blind spot as it pertains to Israel,
need to remember the lessons of Iraq. We need to demand proof and see the facts
for what they are. For all of the heat in regards the Iranian Nuclear situation
there is precious little light. The level of ignorance and misinformation as
the US once again edges to the precipice of war is stunning. This time, we need
to know. Nothing less will do.