Causes of the Deficit

According to the Heritage Foundation , “When the tax cuts were enacted in 2001, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast a $5.6 trillion surplus between 2002 and 2011. Instead, Washington is set to run a cumulative $6.1 trillion deficit over that period. “ Let’s go with that.

They go on to break it down:

• Bush Tax cuts are responsible for $1.7 trillion, 14%

•Two recessions, two stock market crashes, and other economic/technical factors (33 percent)

• Other new spending (32 percent)
• Net interest on the debt (12 percent)
• The 2009 stimulus (6 percent)
• Other tax cuts (3 percent)

Would it not be fair then to assign Republicans responsibility for the 47% of the deficit caused by the tax cuts and the recessions? Of the remaining 53%, they also own some of the other new spending which is I guess is where The Heritage Foundation put the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, and Medicare Part-D, unfunded and  enacted under Bush. So let’s be generous and give the Republicans just 10% of the “Other new spending.” That still pushes them to 57% of the cause of the deficit, according to the Heritage Foundation.  That would make them responsible for more than half of the new expenditures to service the debt. Add that in and I have the Republicans according to the Heritage foundation owning about 2/3 of the deficits which appear to be the centerpiece of their campaign.

The single biggest growth factor in Federal spending is Healthcare, which has grown from 11% of GDP to over 18% of GDP in the last three decades.

The CBO projects Medicare spending at $7.7 trillion for the ten years ending 2022, about $770 Billion per year. Medicare spending in 2012 is projected at just over $500 Billion. Medicaid costs are also on the rise.

When Republicans talk about increased spending it is important to note that their Repeal Obamacare speechifying would enshrine the status quo on Healthcare.  Moreover, while Ryan proposes a radical restructuring of Medicare to transform it to a voucher system from the current “Government Insurance” model his budget calls for nearly the same amount if spending over the next ten years, literally a $10 Billion dollar difference against multi trillion dollar expenditures.

The real cuts are in Medicaid, the health care program for the poor. There Ryan proposes nearly 20% less spending and turning it over to the states, which means the folks in Mississippi and Texas and other states with horrific records on medical care for the poor, might has well starting checking into the place they'd like to spend the forever. These are draconian heartless cuts, required by Ryan’s plan to stimulate the economy by doubling down on the Bush tax cuts. 

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Why is it that no one seems to take notice of the fact that the Bush Tax cuts are still in place in this jobless environment. Why would anyone think that extending them would accelerate job growth? Considering the poor record of job creation under Bush where is the historical empirical data that  tax cuts, especially those targeted on those who have more money than they could ever hope to spend, creates jobs?

The Business of Guns, America 2012

Following Are statistics from the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, The World Health Organization, The Wall Street Journal , The Center for Disease Control, and the  Community Against Violence report on Gun Laws by State. Yesterday I posted a piece that underreported gun violence in America. Today I wanted to get source driven data.

·         Business Wire reports that about 300 US companies generate close to $5 billion in revenue

·         Gun sales are sky-rocketing. In 2000, approximately 9 million National Instant Criminal Background Check System gun checks were performed. In 2009 there were 14 Million. NRA claims that Obama is coming to get Americans guns have meant a boon for American gun manufacturers. As with most other debates what appears on the surface to be grass roots debate is really funded on one side primarily by BIG business interests.

·         According to OpenSecrets. Org, the NRA spent $7.2 in the 2010 election cycle, and spends an additional $2.0 Million a year in lobbying efforts at the federal level

·         In addition top gun makers such as Remington and Smith and Wesson spend hundreds of thousands per year in both lobbying and direct campaign contributions

·         In 2012 NRA’s top donation of $600,000 game from Crossroads GPA, Karl Rove’s unregulated SuperPac

·         Beyond the regulated trade in guns it is estimated that up to 40% of the total availability of guns is made possible through the unregulated secondary market of gun shows where no background checks are performed

·         The US DOJ reports that up to 40% of all guns used in crimes are purchased illegally in the streets, though nearly all guns are sold “legally” the first time

·         Straw purchases and gun trafficking are a critical part of the problem. The ATF reports that in 2011 of almost 9,000 guns seized in NY in 2011, only about 1,600 were purchased in NY. S1973, The Gun Trafficking Prevention Act of 2012, Sponsored by Sen Gillibrand of NY would make that Federal crime. Currently there is little hope that this legislation will pass.

·         In 2008, 31,593 people died from gun violence (National Center for Injury Prevention and Control- NCIPC)

·         Of that number 12,179 people were murdered, and over 18,000 took their own life with a gun

·         In 2009 more than 70,000 people  were shot but survived (NCIPC)

·         Of that number about 3,000 survived a suicide attempt with a gun and 18,610 were shot unintentionally but survived (NCIPC)

·         Suggesting other causal effects beyond accessibility to guns World Health Organization statistics indicate wide variances in suicide rates from country to country

o   US                          17.7 Per 100,000

o   Brazil                     7.7 Per 100,000

o   El Salvador          12.9 Per 100,000

o   France                 24.7 Per 100,000

o   Mexico                 7.0 Per 100,000

o   South Africa       1.4 Per 100,000

o   Sweeden             17.7 Per 100,000

o   Switzerland        24.8 Per 100,000

o   UK                          10.98 Per 100,000

·         In 2008 592 people who were killed unintentionally (NCIPC)

·         In 2009 66,769 people survived gun injuries, 44,466 people shot in an attack (NCIPC)

·         In 2011 there were 326 self- defense gun deaths (Wall Street Journal)

·         There are no Government supported and unbiased surveys of the number of times per year that guns are used in self-defense. Gun control proponents suggest anywhere between 100,000and 2.5 million.

·         Over a million people have been killed with guns in the United States since 1968, when Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy were assassinated (Childrens’ Defense Fund)

·         U.S. homicide rates are 6.9 times higher than rates in 22 other populous high-income countries combined, despite similar non-lethal crime and violence rates. The firearm homicide rate in the U.S. is 19.5 times higher (Journal of Trauma, Injury, Infection, and Critical Care)

·         Among 23 populous, high-income countries, 80% of all firearm deaths occurred in the United States (Journal of Trauma, Injury, Infection, and Critical Care)

·         Keeping a firearm in the home increases the risk of suicide by a factor of 3 to 5 and increases the risk of suicide with a firearm by a factor of 17 (New England Journal of Medicine)

·         Keeping a firearm in the home increases the risk of homicide by a factor of 3 (New England Journal of Medicine)

·         In a 2010 survey only about 1/3 of all American households reported owning guns (UPI), a continuation of dramatic drops since the 1970’s, but gun ownership per family is raising with the average owner now possessing on approximately four weapons

·         A gun in the home is 22 times more likely to be used in a completed or attempted suicide (11x), criminal assault or homicide (7x), or unintentional shooting death or injury (4x) than to be used in a self-defense shooting. (New England Journal of Medicine)

·         Guns are used to intimidate and threaten 4 to 6 times more often than they are used to thwart crime (Journal of Trauma, Injury, Infection, and Critical Care)

·         Every year there are only about 200 legally justified self-defense homicides by private citizens (FBI) compared with over 30,000 gun deaths

·         A 2009 study found that people in possession of a gun are 4.5 times more likely to be shot in an assault (American Journal of Public Health)

·         It is estimated that over forty percent of gun acquisitions occur in the secondary market. That means that they happen without a Brady background check at a federally licensed dealer (Phillip J Cook Oxford University Press)

·         Sales from federal firearm licensees (FFLs) require a background check. Sales between individuals, under federal law, do not require a background check. This means that felons can “lie and buy” at gun shows and other places where guns are readily available

Here is a ranking of states based on the gun deaths per 100,000 figure provided by the Center For Disease Control. The leniency of gun laws is somewhat subjective, but this analysis is by Legal Community Against Violence's state-by-state comparison of firearm laws (http://smartgunlaws.org).

#1, Mississippi, Gun deaths per 100,000: 18.3, Permissive gun laws: 4th out of 50

#2, Arizona, Gun deaths per 100,000: 15, Permissive gun laws: 1st out of 50

#3, Alaska, Gun deaths per 100,000: 17.6, Permissive gun laws: 11th out of 50

#4, Arkansas, Gun deaths per 100,000: 15.1, Permissive gun laws: 7th out of 50

#5, Louisiana, Gun deaths per 100,000: 19.9, Permissive gun laws: 23rd out of 50

#6, New Mexico, Gun deaths per 100,000: 15, Permissive gun laws: 6th out of 50

#7, Alabama, Gun deaths per 100,000: 17.6, Permissive gun laws: 27th out of 50

#8, Nevada, Gun deaths per 100,000: 16.2, Permissive gun laws: 22nd out of 50

#9, Montana, Gun deaths per 100,000: 14.5, Permissive gun laws: 10th out of 50

#10, Wyoming, Gun deaths per 100,000: 14.5, Permissive gun laws: 8th out of 50

#11, Kentucky, Gun deaths per 100,000: 14.4, Permissive gun laws: 5th out of 50

#12, West Virginia, Gun deaths per 100,000: 14.8, Permissive gun laws: 25th out of 50

#13, Tennessee, Gun deaths per 100,000: 15, Permissive gun laws: 31st out of 50

#14, Oklahoma, Gun deaths per 100,000: 13.4, Permissive gun laws: 17th out of 50

#15, Idaho, Gun deaths per 100,000: 12.5, Permissive gun laws: 2nd out of 50

#16, Georgia, Gun deaths per 100,000: 13.1, Permissive gun laws: 13th out of 50

#17, Missouri, Gun deaths per 100,000: 12.9, Permissive gun laws: 12th out of 50

#18, South Carolina, Gun deaths per 100,000: 13.4, Permissive gun laws: 20th out of 50

19, North Carolina, Gun deaths per 100,000: 12.3, Permissive gun laws: 28th out of 50

#20, Florida, Gun deaths per 100,000: 12.5, Permissive gun laws: 41st out of 50

#43, Illinois, Plagued by an orgy of gun violence in Chicago, actually ranks near the bottom in gun deaths per 100,000: 8; largely as a result of its gun safety regulations. Permissive gun laws: 45th out of 50

#45, New York, where FBI statistics indicate roughly 1 in 2 gun crimes is perpetrated with an out of state purchased gun, also ranks near the bottom. Gun deaths per 100,000: 5.1, Permissive gun laws: 43rd out of 50

Oak Creek, Wisconsin

The President should say we cannot legislate insanity out of existence, but we can legislate the amount of guns in circulation (about 250 million). He should say he is going to try to move legislation that closes gun show loopholes. He should acknowledge the power of NRA and note the specific cases where they have stood against even moderate reforms. He should note that many cases that the weaponry in circulation is beyond any practical use for sport or protection, and call the lack of legislation what it is: A National Security threat that must be addressed. Americans need neither armor piercing bullets nor automatic weapons to hunt their deer or protect their homes. He should point out the dangerous effects of weak state laws which allow multiple straw purchases which feed gun violence. States with weak law as allow purchases of dozens of guns which then show up on the streets of in places like New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles. These cities have strong laws, but still suffer the effects of limited nationwide coordinated legislation. AP reports that “Most guns recovered from New York crimes last year (2011) originated in states with fewer legal restrictions, though the largest single source is still New York, where nearly 1,600 were first purchased. The report by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives traced 8,793 guns from New York crimes or investigations. They include 407 guns originally bought in Virginia, 368 in Pennsylvania, 349 in North Carolina, 328 in South Carolina, 341 in Florida and 332 in Georgia.” Finally he should say these moderate steps will not eliminate extreme gun violence but that he is committed to doing what he can personally do to limit these incidents in the future. He should acknowledge the political cost, but stand up on principle.

Blues For Ayn Rand

Abraham Lincoln, Gettysburg, November 19, 1863

“Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.

Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth. “

Lincoln packed so much into 285 words. How America cries out for such visionary leadership and wisdom now.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/02/romneys-defense-of-his-tax-plan-doesnt-add-up/

The cat's sort of out of the bag. Alas, Mitt's "Tax Plan for My Wealthy Friends In America" has been shown to be the fraud so many of us knew it was.

Willard Mitt Romney, Lost, August 2012

“All that other stuff -- and that government of the rich, by the rich, for the rich, shall not perish from the earth. “

A couple things here…1) Anyone that buys the line of bull that Romney is dispensing which suggests that the main flaw in the Tax Policy Center analysis is that it fails to take into the account the economic boost the tax cuts would generate ought to go look at the job growth created by the Bush tax cuts. How stupid does he think people are? As I say that I am reminded that 45% to 48% of us appear poised and ready to vote for Romney regardless of whatever he says or does. Nonethless, even before the Bush authored great recesssion, Bush engineeered taxes cut for his rich friends brought the lowest rate of job growth of any post World War II President.2) Every American needs to know and remember that the entire tax battle is over whether taxes will be raised on those earning MORE THAN $250,000 per year. Joe , the friggin’ plumber were he, let’s say, to be an earner in the $280,000 range would only see his tax bill increase on the $30,000 over $250,000 according to the Obama plan. The first $250,000 would be taxed at current levels. When Republicans talk about the impact of the Obama tax increases on small businesses, they neglect often to note that 98% of the small business would not see any increase in their tax bill.

Going further, this from FactCheck.org: “House Speaker John Boehner claimed that ‘small-business people’ make up more than half of those who would be hit by a tax increase on “millionaires.” Not really. Only 13 percent of those making over $1 million get even as much as one-fourth of that income from small business, according to government tax experts.”

While we are at it, Here is small excerpt of what FactCheck,org says about Republicans claims on Obama’s Healthcare Bill:

“The exaggerated Republican claim that the new health care law “kills jobs” was high on our list of the “Whoppers of 2011”…

“All of this is health-care hooey, aimed at exploiting public concern over continuing high unemployment, with little basis in fact. As we’ve said before (a few times), experts project that the law will cause a small loss of low-wage jobs — and also some gains in better-paid jobs in the health care and insurance industries.

“It’s also expected that more workers will decide to retire earlier, or work fewer hours, when they no longer need employer-sponsored insurance and can obtain it on their own with help from federal subsidies. But that just means fewer people willing to work — and it will free up jobs for those who want them. If anything, that could reduce the jobless rate.

“Claims about the alleged devastation of small business are also off base. The fact is, businesses with fewer than 50 workers are exempt from the requirement to provide coverage, or pay a penalty to the government. Furthermore, some small businesses with fewer than 25 employees are already getting tax credits under the new law to help defray the cost of providing worker coverage.”

Republicans are creating a billionaire-funded smoke machine of massive and epic proportion to cover up this basic point: Their entire campaign is a full frontal attack on working men and women, the poor and those less able to take care of themselves, all in the name of protecting and/ or creating ever greater wealth for a few tens of thousands Americans with more wealth and privilege than most Americans have or will ever see.

When the Republicans tell you that they are not the Party of the Rich, they are the party of those who aspire to be so, know this: The America of 2012 ranks at the bottom of industrialized nations in terms of upward mobility. In plain terms the poor in America tend to stay that way, even when compared to the highly stratified and class-conscious Europeans. Republicans who talk about an opportunity society while they defund public schools, pre-natal healthcare, and Pre-K to High School education, all the while proposing to allow healthcare and college costs to create their own discipline through the fairy dust of magical market forces are selling a lie.

When Americans hear Tea Party, or Americans for Prosperity, Cross Roads, or Restore Our Future, They ought always remember that each of these groups garners at least 50% and in some cases as much as 90% of all contributions from a couple dozen or so of the wealthiest men in America. If only the perpetually whiney Ayn Rand had lived to see this; she would be so happy.

As it is she missed this orgy of cynicism, and selfishness by a couple of decades. She died in 1982.  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/02/romneys-defense-of-his-tax-plan-doesnt-add-up/