Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Just the Facts from Allen West

Allen West, Republican firebrand from Florida, recently released a chart showing with some accuracy what has happened during the Obama presidency. He calls it "What our President has done for this country". I have seen the chart reposted on FB. West notes that unemployment is up from 7.8% when Obama took over to 8.3% now. Most Republicans don’t even buy that number pointing to the number of people that have given up looking and so no longer counted. West also points to the dramatic growth in the deficit from just over $10 trillion to just over $15 trillion as well as the drop in home prices. Gas prices he notes are up since the depths of the economic crisis to nearly $4.00, but does not mention that was about where they were before the collapse on Wall Street. Typical. To be fair West generally covers the whole panoply of issues which now dog us as a nation, and which we see on the news every day are far worse in other corners of the world. I have included a link to West Chart at the bottom of this essay.

There are those that would challenge the accuracy of West pronouncements. He has burned bridges with almost everyone expect his Tea Party core with his wild rhetoric, recently urging Nancy Pelosi and President Obama to leave the country. But to me--with a little googling-- the numbers appear to be essentially accurate. Though it is always tempting to blast the messenger, especially a yahoo like West, but there is basic truth in the numbers, so perhaps there is something else to see here. What the President has done for his country? Well let's see...

I don't have all the specifics, but West’s Chart fits well within the Republican refrain and mostly this does look to be an accurate reporting of essentials facts. As always the suggestions are that employment, home values, and the debt were all under control until Obama took office. People who accept that premise will find it easy to overlook the fact that 4.5 million jobs were lost in the last year of the Bush presidency and vote for whatever Republican wins the nomination. West notes that the net job loss under Obama is an additional 1.2 million.
On the debt, it is true that Under Obama it has grown from $10.6 trillion to $15.2 trillion. Tax revenues have plunged as a result of the deteriorating economic circumstances, and this has been exacerbated by the extension of the Bush tax cuts, which the Republicans insisted on in the run-up to the crisis they created over their newfound urgency over managing the debt.

The cost of maintaining the social safety net has also had a dramatic effect on the debt. Yes, expenditures for food stamps are way up as would be expected in an economy with high structural unemployment, that is  a very large number of long term unemployed, as well as decimated savings accounts and home values caused by the calamity on Wall Street.  One of the things West does not address is the number of Americans that have been foreclosed. That number is more than 10 million since 2008. People thrown out of their homes, in a jobless economy are going to need support. When the crisis came this time, there simply was no place for many Americans to go. By the end of 2008 Americans were leveraged to the hilt with too much debt and too little savings.

Of course we can make the old argument that this entire mess was the Republicans fault, with misguided policies, and poor oversight of a financial industry run amok with cheap cash and little regulation.  But, I think it’s far more illuminating to talk about what the Republicans would do now. On the basic stuff, there is not a hair’s difference between the Libertarian Ron Paul, the Big Business “moderate” Romney and the two conservatives Santorum and Gingrich.  
All propose deep cuts in discretionary spending. Ron Paul the most aggressive budget cutter proposes a trillion in cuts next year that everyone knows will go nowhere.  Romney proposes a more moderate path, but one that the Wall Street Journals has branded as too timid. Romney couples his cuts with pandering and absurd increases in defense spending and a moronic hands off Medicare pledge that even Obama is not airtight on, especially at we look to the future demographic changes.  Romney’s moderate plan would require a 21% cut on the discretionary spending by the end of his first term.

A lot of things would have to go. This is why you saw what appeared to be heartless discussions at the debates. Something’s gotta go. One in six Americans on food stamps? Make that one in four or five, that’ll get people off the couch and back to work. The cost of college loans are too high and anyhow Obama edged the banks out of the profit picture. Easy solution for that. Go back to the policies in place during the Bush administration. Let the free market determine who does and does not get to go to college and for gosh sakes let the banks get their cut.
Programs to help 20 million people with underwater mortgages are not reaching enough people so the housing market continues to struggle. The Republican plan? Step back. They argue that 10 million homeowners losing their homes was not an adequate correction. The free market should be allowed to run its course. Let another 10 million lose their homes through foreclosure. That housing stock would then be thrown on the market, causing another steep drop in home prices that West notes have dropped 13% since Obama was elected. I’m surprised it’s only 13%. Structural unemployment deepens and worsens leading logically to lower tax revenues, and higher government expenditures and deepening deficits.

Sounds pretty concerning. But the Republicans have a one size fits all plan that solves the challenge of how you get the economy rolling even as you dramatically reduce government support for middle and working class people and the poor. They propose revving up the economy with deeper tax cuts than Bush even proposed. Bush tax cuts were linked to expansive government spending. The tax cuts, two wars, and an unfunded Medicare drug plan caused the deficit under Bush to nearly double from about $5 trillion to about $10 trillion. Most Republicans now argue that the tax cuts were not deep enough and that the budget cuts need to be deeper. And real. They would argue that Romney at 14% of his millions pays too little in taxes. Romney himself has argued for zero tax on manufacturing, and zero tax on the repatriation of the hundreds of billions in corporate profits now sheltered overseas. Of course when Bush got legislation to do just that in 2004, and American business brought home $300 billion in overseas profits, it did not create job growth as promised. Even before the recession at the end of his second term, and even with the unprecedented tax cuts passed in his first term Bush presided over the worst record of job growth of any president since 1945. The Republican plan is to double down on those policies.
Somewhere in here most Americans know that painful budget cuts are coming. No one wants to replicate the experience in Greece. Support for a wide swath of government initiatives will have to be reduced.  While I don’t believe that those policy proposals will be pass easily of r be easily implemented I think most Americans know they are overdue. In time, Social Security and Medicare will need to be reformed. Retirement ages will rise, and benefits for the very well to do may have to be curtailed. Since both are largely funded from taxpayer contributions this will NOT go down easily. However, compromise will be possible when reality sets in. Part of that reality is that cuts will have to be coupled with increases on tax rates for the wealthy. The country simply cannot afford to weaken the safety net for the poor, increases expenses for college and other programs for the middle class, and protect at all costs the wealthy who have seen their income sky rocket.

I am sure Mr. West is sincere in his belief that the country has gone to hell in a hand basket since Mr.  Obama was elected. I have heard many conservatives talk in near apocalyptic terms about a second Obama term. I continue to be amazed at the partisanship that does not see fault or failure in Iraq or with the economic catastrophe in 2008, but predicts the end of the world as he know it if Obama wins reelection.  But it is time to move on. Blame has been apportioned on partisan terms and so be it.  It is time to weigh the future.
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