Friday, October 12, 2012

Old Joe Takes on the Boy Wonder


I'm pretty happy with Biden's performance last night. Particularly on foreign policy, I thought Ryan was out of his league. On Afghanistan Ryan’s repetition of Afghan cities reminded me of the young person who learns a new word while in High School and then uses the word 19 times in the next school paper he writes. We get it, you learned a new word. This does not make you an expert on The Catcher in The Rye. Actually it does not really even guarantee you read the book. In lock step with the polling data, the Repubs support the 2014 withdrawal date from Afghanistan. This of course is true for most all Americans, with the only exception being those, like me, who would like to see a faster withdrawal.

Romeny & Ryan have no specific proposals for Iran beyond sanctions already in place, and they have no plans for Syria beyond what Obama is doing. In general their entire thrust seems to be the use of tougher language, which to me has made them look at times, undisciplined and dangerous. I was struck that Ryan mentioned there would be no American boots on the ground committed unless vital US security interests were at stake. When pressed by Radditz on Humanitarian missions, he backtracked; which pretty much negated the first part of his statement. Still it sounded like a pretty high bar. Not sure if this leaves them committed to military action in Iran, which I am sure they will soon discover would be really, really dangerous and opposed by the American people looking for a jobs plan which is not limited to military enlistment. Not to mention that it would hamstring their agenda, basically limit their options on almost everything else on either the tax or spending side. None of their blather means anything. Right now there is not a hair width’s difference between the parties. Obama has picked up some of the most aggressive Bush era policies. He’s been anything but a dove.

However, there is one looming political issue. Biden’s answer on Libya was troubling. Yes, the Repubs have made dramatic cuts to the Embassy security budgets. For the Repubs to make this a purely partisan game of blame the President is ridiculous. That being said there are always, or at least always should be enough resources to defend any particular embassy which comes under specific threat. I refuse to believe that the Administration was locked in, hands tied by the evil Republicans, to letting those people die in Benghazi. Biden’s comments last night both in terms of when they knew that it was a terrorist attack, and whether or not security was requested by the Embassy prior to the attack, have not been substantiated by the recent testimony in Congress. Chris Wallace on Fox last night did say there was some support for the security request scenario, but that there were many conflicting stories there and that the facts have not fully come out. That seems pretty fair and about right to me. Regarding the issue of when the administration knew it was a terror attack and specifically whether or not UN Ambassador Susan Rice went on TV and lied to the American people seems far more problematic. While I will leave room to acknowledge that more facts may come out, right now it seems to me, that when the ambassador went on those Sunday shows, the Administration MUST have known that the attack was not a spontaneous demonstration run amok, but rather a terrorist act. In other words, she lied.

As a Democrat, knowing that the Repub budget, tax and entitlement proposals don't add up, and suggestions otherwise are laughable, Biden had a better debate performance. Some of what the Repubs are proposing is just plain cruel, and by the way with a filibuster proof majority/minority in the Senate  will not pass. Even overturning ObamaCare could be pretty tough, though they could defund it to such a dramatic extent it would stand as an eviscerated shell.

But I have to wonder sometimes where the Repubs are really going. The personhood amendment, which would criminalize abortion, if passed would probably leave them out of power for a generation. The Medicare stuff will never pass. I just do not believe that when the legislative sausage is made in Congress-- here again, particularly the Senate because of filibuster -- will turn Medicare into a voucher program. The uproar would be tremendous and unlike the corporate sponsored Tea Party outrage at the town hall meetings, grass roots real. In general I am quite confident there is no appetite across the country to let poor people die without Medicaid sponsored health care. Let me restate that, there is no filibuster proof majority. Just as there is no screaming desire to let millions of children go hungry without school lunch programs, or cut spaces for Pre-Scholl education, or cut back on Veteran’s Healthcare and rehabilitation benefits. For all the talk about PBS and Big Bird, it is such a small amount of money it is just a silly distraction for both parties, things they focus on because the real life and death issues, critical to people’s lives, those issues they are afraid to touch. On budget matters Romney and Ryan have shown zero courage. Obama and Biden deserve a little more credit, but not much. Given the chance last night to state the obvious that the retirement age will need to go up, Biden passed.  The Republicans talk about cutting the budget, but have offered even in the Ryan plan precious few specifics.

But taken as a whole, and assuming the worst in November, I just to do not think Americans are so cruel that when faced with the real impact of what these cuts would mean, they will ever pass. Add in the tax cuts which will absolutely benefit the rich—they are the ones paying for Romney’s election-- and it’s really hard to see where this goes legislatively.  

Still Biden had a good to very good night. That being said those that think Biden ran Ryan off the floor are I think are drinking Kool-Aid laced with hallucinogens. Republicans, I would think, are pretty happy their boy didn’t crash and burn. (How could he? He was constantly, constantly, dousing himself with water).  I would guess independents saw this through the prism of whomever they are leaning towards.

I do think Biden won from this perspective: The next debate is next Tuesday, just a few days. During that time the narrative shifts again. For the last few days it has been all Romney swept the floor with Obama, now there is a new story for a few days. The bleeding I think has stopped and that is as good as it gets right now. Moreover, Romney made progress in polls, but did not close gap in all the swing states he needs to win.  I think the president still has a slight, slim edge, and I think this debate pretty much locked that in til the next debate. Elections will come down to each party’s ability to turn out there base, and Biden fired up Dems again.

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